It's never a great feeling to travel to an event, lose the first two matches, and be eliminated quickly. The CSI Group Play format was developed to eliminate that problem and provide all teams more play. Stage 1 is a group stage and Stage 2 is a single elimination final bracket. In Stage 1, teams from the entire field are randomly drawn into 5 separate matches and the teams that perform the best advance to Stage 2. The Stage 1 ranking criteria may be slightly different depending on whether the particular division is handicapped, non-handicapped, or whether it uses the BCA Pool League or USA Pool League scoring methods. However, the first advancement criteria is normally match win percentage.
If the division has an even number of teams, there are no "byes" in Stage 1 and all teams play the same number of matches, usually five. However, if the division has an odd number of teams, there will be one team, in each of the five Stage 1 rounds, that has no opponent, which are labeled as a "bye." The result is that five teams play four matches while the others play five.
If the division has an even number of teams, there are no "byes" in Stage 1 and all teams play the same number of matches, usually five. However, if the division has an odd number of teams, there will be one team, in each of the five Stage 1 rounds, that has no opponent, which are labeled as a "bye." The result is that five teams play four matches while the others play five.
IS THIS FAIR?
There have been a few teams that fell into this situation, won two of their four matches, and failed to advance to Stage 2 because the 50% win percentage was not good enough. Some believe it wasn't fair because they didn't have the "opportunity" to improve their win percentage with a fifth match. Are they correct?
THE RESULTS
If it's true that teams with a Stage 1 bye are at a disadvantage, they should advance to Stage 2 at a lower rate than those without byes (i.e. they are less likely to advance to Stage 2). Let's review the results of the team divisions from the 2024 BCA Pool League World Championships. There were five divisions with an odd number of teams and byes in Stage 1. Because five teams in each of these divisions received a bye, a total of 25 teams had a Stage 1 bye (i.e. 25 teams played four matches while the others played five). In these particular divisions, the Player Guide stipulated that 40% of all teams would advance to Stage 2. Therefore, if things were perfectly equitable, 40% of those 25 teams (10 teams) should also advance to Stage 2. Less than 10 teams would be possible evidence of a problem. Below are the results.
There have been a few teams that fell into this situation, won two of their four matches, and failed to advance to Stage 2 because the 50% win percentage was not good enough. Some believe it wasn't fair because they didn't have the "opportunity" to improve their win percentage with a fifth match. Are they correct?
THE RESULTS
If it's true that teams with a Stage 1 bye are at a disadvantage, they should advance to Stage 2 at a lower rate than those without byes (i.e. they are less likely to advance to Stage 2). Let's review the results of the team divisions from the 2024 BCA Pool League World Championships. There were five divisions with an odd number of teams and byes in Stage 1. Because five teams in each of these divisions received a bye, a total of 25 teams had a Stage 1 bye (i.e. 25 teams played four matches while the others played five). In these particular divisions, the Player Guide stipulated that 40% of all teams would advance to Stage 2. Therefore, if things were perfectly equitable, 40% of those 25 teams (10 teams) should also advance to Stage 2. Less than 10 teams would be possible evidence of a problem. Below are the results.
DIVISION |
TEAMS WITH A BYE (THAT ADVANCED) |
TEAMS WITH A BYE (TOTAL) |
9-Ball Teams - Platinum |
2 |
5 |
9-Ball Teams - Gold |
4 |
5 |
8-Ball Teams - Gold |
3 |
5 |
8-Ball Teams - Silver |
1 |
5 |
Ladies 8-Ball Teams |
4 |
5 |
TOTAL |
14 |
25 |
As you can see, 14 of the 25 teams (56%) with a Stage 1 bye advanced to Stage 2. Put another way, teams that played four matches were about 16% more likely to advance to Stage 2 than those who played five matches.
How can this be? For all of these divisions, teams that won three out of five matches (a 60% win percentage) had a 49.5% chance of advancing to Stage 2. Conversely, teams that won three out of four matches (a 75% win percentage) had a 100% chance of advancing to Stage 2.
SUMMARY
Could a team with two wins out of four matches improve its chance of advancing with one more match? Yes, but only slightly. Are teams with a Stage 1 bye at a disadvantage? No.
While anecdotal situations can always be found, there is no evidence that there is any disadvantage to having a Stage 1 bye. To the contrary, there is evidence to suggest that having a bye is actually an advantage.
How can this be? For all of these divisions, teams that won three out of five matches (a 60% win percentage) had a 49.5% chance of advancing to Stage 2. Conversely, teams that won three out of four matches (a 75% win percentage) had a 100% chance of advancing to Stage 2.
SUMMARY
Could a team with two wins out of four matches improve its chance of advancing with one more match? Yes, but only slightly. Are teams with a Stage 1 bye at a disadvantage? No.
While anecdotal situations can always be found, there is no evidence that there is any disadvantage to having a Stage 1 bye. To the contrary, there is evidence to suggest that having a bye is actually an advantage.
